Global biogas and biomethane production has been gaining prominence on clean energy and sustainability agendas at both domestic and international levels. Recent reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that the combined production of these renewable energy sources is expected to grow by around 22 percent between 2025 and 2030. This growth results from public policies aimed at reducing emissions, initiatives supporting renewable production, and specific mandates for blending biomethane into natural gas grids in European Union countries. The development of regulatory frameworks and the strengthening of the value chain are central factors for realizing this potential.
Global production outlook, bottlenecks, and opportunities
The IEA report highlights that global biogas and biomethane production volumes could increase by 22 percent by 2030 compared with 2025, reflecting a revision of expectations and a more favorable environment for renewable energy investments. The analysis includes data showing differences in growth rates across regions, with Europe, North America, and emerging markets in Asia and Latin America standing out.
In the European Union, the focus has been gradually shifting from biogas production alone to upgrading biogas into biomethane of sufficient quality for injection into natural gas grids. Countries such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Denmark have expanded their production capacities, although projections suggest the bloc may fall short of its most ambitious targets. The REPowerEU strategy sets a goal of producing 35 billion cubic meters of biomethane per year by 2030, but estimates indicate that, based on the current pace of expansion, production could reach around 27 billion cubic meters by that time.
In the United States, production is also growing rapidly, with projections indicating that biomethane output could more than double by 2030 based on regulatory incentives and low-carbon fuel policies. More than 150 biomethane plants are under construction, adding to the hundreds already in operation, with the transportation sector as the main driver.
In emerging countries such as India and Brazil, the context involves capacity building and the formulation of policies that recognize the value of this energy source. India, for example, expects an increase of around 21 percent in total biogas and biomethane production by 2030 compared with previous estimates. In Brazil, sector expansion has been driven by agribusiness and waste utilization, with projections indicating that the country could account for a significant share of global biomethane in the coming years, positioning itself among the largest producers by the middle of the decade.
The IEA report also notes that only about 5 percent of the global sustainable technical potential for biogas and biomethane production is currently being utilized. This potential corresponds to nearly one trillion cubic meters of natural gas equivalent per year, which is about one quarter of current global natural gas demand. This underscores the vast growth opportunity, especially in markets where infrastructure remains limited.
Regulation and certification: European biomethane blending mandates
Regulation plays a central role in the growth of biogas and biomethane production. In the European Union, in addition to renewable energy production targets, specific policies have been implemented to encourage the blending of biomethane into natural gas grids. Countries such as France have established blending requirements with near-term deadlines, requiring a share of distributed gas to consist of biomethane. These mandates send demand signals to producers and reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.
The implementation of a unified European sustainability certification system for biogas and biomethane is another essential element for increasing investor confidence. The absence of a robust system hinders the traceability of environmental attributes and can limit the liquidity of renewable energy contracts. Harmonizing these systems across EU member states is seen as a necessary step to efficiently integrate biomethane into the European energy market.
In the United States, the combination of federal tax incentives and state-level standards that recognize low-carbon credits increases the competitiveness of biomethane in the transportation sector and other applications. These mechanisms, while not universal, create a favorable regulatory environment that has stimulated private investment in production and infrastructure.
In emerging markets, regulation is still under development. In Brazil, although there are no universal blending mandates like those in the European Union, the country has made progress in building policies that recognize biogas and biomethane as strategic components of the energy mix and the circular economy. Analysis of the sector in Brazil in 2025 shows growing media coverage and initiatives related to the topic, reflecting increasing interest from public and private stakeholders.
End uses: mobility, power generation, and industrial heat
The end use of biogas and biomethane is directly linked to the versatility of these sources as substitutes for fossil fuels. In the mobility sector, compressed or liquefied biomethane has emerged as a low-carbon alternative for heavy transport fleets, urban buses, and corporate vehicles. This application is supported by policies that offer emissions performance credits and by standards that promote low-carbon fuels in sustainable transport markets.
In electricity generation and industrial heat, biogas plays an established role in many regions, especially where natural gas grids are not yet widely available. Distributed generation units enable the efficient conversion of organic waste into electricity and heat, meeting local energy needs and contributing to increased energy resilience in rural and industrial communities.
Other emerging uses include integration into combined energy generation systems with carbon capture technologies and green hydrogen production. Although this remains a developing technological frontier, integrating biogas with hydrogen solutions and other synthetic fuels could broaden the range of applications and contribute to the decarbonization of energy-intensive sectors.
Conclusion
The growth of biogas and biomethane through 2030 reflects a global shift toward more sustainable and resilient energy systems, driven by public policies and rising demand for low-carbon renewable fuels. Expanding production requires not only investments in technology and infrastructure, but also clear regulatory mechanisms and certification systems that ensure traceability and credibility of emissions reductions.
Despite the challenges, the largely untapped production potential indicates that the sector can play a significant role in the global energy mix. Countries that advance with stable policies, economic incentives, and infrastructure integration will be able to capture the environmental and economic benefits of this renewable source, contributing to climate change mitigation and long-term energy security.
