The international commitment aims to accelerate the energy transition and limit global warming to 1.5°C, but faces regulatory, financial, and technological barriers
In an unprecedented effort to curb the worsening of climate change, leaders from nearly 200 countries approved, at the end of 2023, during the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, the so-called “UAE Consensus.” The agreement established two central goals for the global energy transition this decade: to triple the installed capacity of renewable sources and to double the energy efficiency rate by 2030. Now, in 2025, the pact signed in the United Arab Emirates is still considered by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and experts as the most significant collective advance since the Paris Agreement in 2015. However, the path to turning these targets into reality is still marked by financial, regulatory, and technological obstacles that challenge governments and companies around the world.
According to the report “The UAE Consensus: 2030 Breakthroughs – Tripling Renewables & Doubling Efficiency,” published by IRENA in October 2024, the world needs to jump from 3,400 GW of installed renewable capacity, registered in 2022, to around 11,000 GW by the end of the decade—a more than threefold increase. In addition, the annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency must double, rising from about 2% per year to 4%, for the planet to have a real chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the central goal of the Paris Agreement.
The UN climate executive secretary, Simon Stiell, stated that the “UAE Consensus” ushers in “a new industrial era,” with the potential to accelerate the decline of fossil fuels and inaugurate the leadership of clean energy. “We are facing the greatest implementation challenge ever agreed among nations,” Stiell said in a statement.
Distant target: current pace falls short of what is needed
Despite political optimism, current data reveal that the pace of renewable expansion is far from what is required by the pact. In 2022, according to IRENA, about 300 GW of new renewable installations were added globally, more than 80% of which are concentrated in solar and wind energy. To meet the 2030 target, it will be necessary to install, on average, almost 1,100 GW per year—more than triple the current rate.
The distribution of investments is also unequal. The IRENA report points out that 85% of new renewable capacity in 2022 was concentrated in a few countries: China, the United States, India, and the European Union. Regions such as Africa and Latin America have high potential but lack adequate infrastructure, access to financing, and regulatory stability to attract private and international capital.
In the field of energy efficiency, the situation is even more critical. According to the report, the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency has stagnated below 2% per year since 2018, mainly due to increased energy consumption in hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as transport and heavy industry. “There is a significant gap between what is needed and what is being achieved,” says Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA.
Bottlenecks and barriers: policy, financing, and technology
Achieving the UAE Consensus targets depends on progress in four main areas: public policy, investment, infrastructure, and workforce qualification.
In the regulatory field, experts point out that many countries still maintain billion-dollar subsidies for fossil fuels. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), explicit and implicit subsidies for oil, gas, and coal reached US$7 trillion in 2022, a figure four times higher than the total invested globally in renewable energies. IRENA recommends revising these policies, creating more robust carbon markets, and adopting mechanisms such as energy auctions, long-term purchase agreements (PPAs), and mandatory targets for clean sources.
On the financial front, the challenge is to mobilize resources on an unprecedented scale. The agency’s report estimates that at least US$1.3 trillion per year in renewable investments will be needed until 2030—currently, the annual volume is about US$500 billion. Developing countries face higher financing costs due to currency risks, lack of guarantees, and lower sovereign credit ratings. Multilateral organizations and development banks are under pressure to create risk mitigation instruments and offer more accessible credit for projects in emerging markets.
In infrastructure, bottlenecks range from the modernization of transmission and distribution networks—considered a barrier to integrating variable sources such as solar and wind—to the dependence on global supply chains for critical minerals (such as lithium, copper, and rare earths), which are essential for batteries, turbines, and solar panels. The recent semiconductor crisis and the concentration of suppliers in a few countries have increased costs and delayed projects.
Regarding human capital, the transition to a low-carbon economy will require the training of millions of workers in new skills, such as the operation of digital systems, maintenance of renewable equipment, and management of complex projects. The report predicts that the renewables sector could generate up to 40 million direct and indirect jobs by 2030, provided there are policies for training and inclusion of women and minorities.
Risks of climate justice and new dependencies
Analysts and NGOs warn of the risk of worsening global inequalities if there is no effective transfer of resources, technology, and knowledge to less developed countries. The pact signed at COP28 foresees mechanisms for financial and technical support, but, according to evaluations by Oxfam and Greenpeace, similar commitments made at previous summits were partially or totally unfulfilled.
Another point of concern is the “new dependency” on strategic minerals and equipment concentrated in a few regions. China, Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia dominate the production of essential inputs for the energy transition. “The vulnerability of global supply chains can represent a new type of geopolitical risk,” the IRENA report assesses.
Investments needed to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 compared to progress in 2023
Source/Image: IRENA
Leadership, opportunities, and emblematic cases
China stands out as the main driver of renewable expansion, responsible for about half of global investments in 2022. India is accelerating large-scale solar projects, while the European Union is investing in regional grid integration and the production of green hydrogen. In the United States, the approval of the Inflation Reduction Act injected more than US$370 billion in tax incentives for clean energy.
In Latin America, Brazil stands out as the largest producer of renewable energy in the region, with 87% of its electricity matrix coming from clean sources, mainly hydroelectric, but faces challenges in expanding solar and wind participation. Sub-Saharan Africa, despite vast solar potential, accounts for less than 2% of global investments in renewables, according to BloombergNEF.
Next steps: pressure for results and monitoring
For sector specialists and climate negotiators, the UAE Consensus represents a historic turning point, but its credibility depends on the countries’ ability to turn targets into concrete actions, with transparency and monitoring mechanisms. “Promises need to be translated into national policies, regulatory frameworks, and investment flows,” says Rachel Kyte, former director of Sustainable Energy for All at the UN.
The next cycle of national target reviews, scheduled for 2025, should serve as a thermometer to measure the real progress of the pact. Civil society organizations and multilateral entities promise to closely monitor the developments of the agreement signed in Dubai.
