Cutting carbon emissions is no longer a future agenda—it is now embedded in strategic decisions. Businesses that adopt renewable sources and sustainable practices make faster progress on ESG goals, mitigate risks, and strengthen competitiveness in the global market.
The year 2026 marks a decisive turning point in the relationship between companies and sustainability in Brazil. After years in which the ESG (environmental, social, and governance) agenda was treated as institutional narrative or corporate marketing, corporate sustainability is now being assessed through the lens of risk, cost, and return. Decarbonization has stopped being a future promise and has entered the spreadsheet into budgets and into organizations’ strategic decisions.
This shift is not accidental. With Law No. 15,042/2024 formalizing Brazil’s regulated carbon market, emissions stop being merely an environmental indicator and begin to influence costs, investments, access to financing, and competitiveness. The Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE) sets an emissions cap for sectors of the economy and turns that limit into tradable allowances, creating a new economic asset.
Brazil’s Carbon Market Takes Shape
While the legal framework was approved in 2024, 2026 is the year of effective regulation. The Ministry of Finance aims to prepare the Brazilian economy for an international scenario in which carbon pricing is seen as irreversible. In January, the government began building the digital infrastructure that will support the SBCE, through a partnership between Serpro and the Ministry of Finance.
The platform under development will function as the central registry of the regulated carbon market, bringing together greenhouse-gas emissions reporting, tracking of decarbonization targets, and the registration of tradable financial assets. The solution will support traceability, data integrity, and legal certainty for transactions among market participants.
According to World Bank estimates cited in recent analyses, carbon emissions from regulated sectors could fall 21% by 2040 and 27% by 2050, with the price per ton of carbon potentially reaching US$ 30 per ton, rising to US$ 60 in a second phase.
Measurable ESG: From Narrative to Numbers
One of the most significant changes in 2026 is the end of the era of generic reports. Companies will need to demonstrate through data, not narrative the return on their initiatives. This is not only about good environmental practices, but about cost reduction, operational efficiency, risk mitigation, and stronger financial stability.
A phrase circulating among specialists captures the moment well: “there is no ESG without Excel.” The era of initiatives done purely for image is over. Now, companies must prove impact, financial return, and efficiency. Investors, boards, and regulators are already signaling this shift, and actions without impact evidence are expected to lose ground in the market.
XP Investimentos, in a report published in December 2025, notes that global demand for more consistent and comparable ESG information has been rising, alongside the maturation of regulatory requirements and increased investor scrutiny. The expectation is that 2026 will mark a new phase in disclosure rules, with a focus on implementation and stronger corporate readiness.
A Renewable Energy Matrix as a Competitive Differentiator
Brazil starts from a privileged position in the global energy transition. According to the National Energy Balance (BEN) 2025, in 2024 the share of renewables reached up to 88.2% a figure significantly higher than the world and OECD averages.
On January 1, 2026, the country surpassed 215.9 GW of installed capacity in centralized power plants, according to SIGA (ANEEL’s Generation Information System). Of this total, 84.63% of installed capacity comes from renewable sources, with a strong presence of hydro, wind, solar, and biomass. ANEEL forecasts 9.14 GW of additional installed capacity in 2026, representing a 23.4% increase compared with the expansion recorded in 2025.
The expansion of renewables is not just an environmental issue it is strategic. In 2026, renewable energy consolidates as a strategic tool for business growth, reducing operating costs, providing predictability, and freeing up resources for investment.
Large companies have already embraced this view. Vale, for example, has invested more than R$ 7.4 billion in decarbonization since 2025, aiming to cut direct and indirect emissions by 33% by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050. In the words of ArcelorMittal’s CFO, “it’s a one-way path, and anyone who doesn’t embrace it in a real and genuine way will be left behind.”
Multi-Billion Incentives for Decarbonization
In Brazil and in international markets alike, 2026 is marked by robust programs that incentivize corporate decarbonization. In Portugal, the Notice MPR-2026-01 makes €165 million in ERDF funding available to support corporate investments aimed at reducing energy consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions.
The notice’s indicative overall allocation totals €165 million, financed by the ERDF, and support per company and per project can reach a maximum of €30 million. Applications, open since January 26, 2026, are aimed at replacing, adapting, or introducing low-carbon equipment, technologies, and processes.
The program’s objective is clear: to strengthen companies’ competitiveness by improving energy efficiency and decarbonizing production processes. Eligible operations are those that deliver measurable energy-efficiency gains, including modernization of industrial equipment, process electrification, and replacement of technologies based on fossil fuels.
Challenges and Risks of the Transition
Despite progress, the transition is not free of obstacles. In the renewable energy sector, Brazil faces significant operational challenges. Curtailment forced cuts in power generation continues to pressure wind and solar companies.
According to a BTG Pactual analysis released in January 2026, curtailment remained elevated throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, with direct effects on revenue and the performance of companies in the power sector. Among listed firms, the most significant impacts fell on CPFL Energia and Copel.
The sector also faces a slowdown in installations. According to ABEEólica, in 2025 the installation of new wind farms fell to 2.2 GW, the lowest volume since 2019 and less than half of 2023. The expectation for 2026 is only 1.26 GW of wind capacity coming online.
The Legacy of COP30 and the Challenges of 2026
COP30 in Belém, concluded in November 2025, consolidated Brazil’s leadership in the global climate agenda. The event brought together 195 countries that approved the Belém Package, a set of 29 decisions advancing topics such as a just transition, adaptation finance, trade, gender, and technology.
Among the most significant achievements was the launch of the Forever Tropical Forests Fund, an unprecedented mechanism that mobilized more than US$ 6.7 billion in its first phase, endorsed by 63 countries. The fund establishes long-term payments for countries that preserve tropical forests, creating a new conservation-based economy.
With COP31 scheduled for November 2026 in Antalya, Turkey, pressure on Brazilian companies to demonstrate concrete progress in emissions reduction is intensifying. Access to climate finance and sustainable investment is increasingly conditional on presenting clear decarbonization plans, with realistic targets and defined timelines.
ESG Investments and Access to Capital
Financial markets have been among the main drivers of the ESG agenda. In 2026, the demand for financially material data intensifies. ESG risks and opportunities enter valuation models, budgets, and investment prioritization. Talking about sustainability without translating impacts into numbers has become insufficient.
Companies with poor ESG ratings face growing barriers when seeking external investment. Businesses that fail to achieve strong ESG scores tend to be excluded from ESG funds and indices—something that already happens in Brazil. Global demand for more consistent and comparable ESG information has increased, driven by maturing regulatory requirements and heightened investor scrutiny.
According to a report published by XP Investimentos in December 2025, five ESG trends are expected to guide investments in 2026: expansion of nuclear energy and green data centers; evolution of ESG reporting and sustainable taxonomies; growth of battery energy storage systems (BESS); consolidation of critical minerals and sustainable supply chains; and integration between AI and sustainability.
Small and Mid-Sized Businesses in the Green Transition
The ESG agenda is not exclusive to large corporations. According to Vanessa Rinaldi, an ESG consultant at Sebrae-SP, most small and mid-sized businesses do not have a dedicated ESG team, but that does not prevent them from adopting good practices.
For SMEs, the main entry point is often cost reduction. Less waste of energy, raw materials, and time means greater efficiency and competitiveness. Paula Batich, a coordinator at Senac São Paulo, emphasizes that the decisive factor for investing in more sustainable practices is not available budget, but leadership commitment.
Technology as an Ally to Sustainability
Digital transformation is also a green revolution. In 2026, Artificial Intelligence and data automation are indispensable tools for efficient ESG management. Companies use AI to monitor carbon emissions, predict environmental risks, and optimize the use of natural resources in real time.
In Brazil, the Portuguese technology company Celfocus developed a digital platform that allows companies to calculate their carbon footprint, manage initiatives eligible for carbon credit issuance, and participate in a marketplace for buying and selling those credits. The platform enables sustainable project developers to manage initiatives eligible for carbon credit issuance, digitally tracking all stages from submission through validation.
The Future Starts Now
Decarbonization is no longer a choice it is an operational necessity. Companies that treat environmental regulation as a topic restricted to the sustainability department tend to face operational and financial difficulties. When sustainability enters the spreadsheet, it enters the budget. And when it enters the budget, it becomes a priority.
Brazil with its predominantly renewable energy matrix, strategic natural resources, and innovation capacity has unique conditions to establish itself as a benchmark in corporate sustainability. The challenge is turning this potential into concrete action, ensuring competitiveness, market access, and business longevity.
In 2026, there is no more room for empty speeches or distant targets. Sustainability is consolidating as a present-day requirement, and the companies that anticipate these changes with verifiable data, integrated technology, and genuine commitment will be better positioned to thrive in the low-carbon economy taking shape globally.
