Humanity is dangerously approaching the 2°C limit, with irreversible consequences and an urgent need for climate action.
A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released at the end of May 2025, raises a global alarm about the accelerating warming of the planet. Based on 220 simulations from 15 climate research centers, the document projects a concerning scenario for the next five years, indicating that the world is increasingly close to exceeding safe climate thresholds.
The WMO Warning
The WMO report points to an 80% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. The forecast is that the global average temperature will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) during this period. In the worst-case scenario, the world could reach nearly 2°C before 2030, which would trigger irreversible environmental consequences.
There is an 86% probability that 1.5°C will be exceeded in at least one of the next five years, compared to 40% in the 2020 report. In addition, there is a 70% chance that the average over the entire five-year period (2025–2029) will surpass this critical threshold.
Regional and Global Impacts
Accelerated Arctic warming is expected to continue outpacing the global average, being more than 3.5 times higher than the global average over the next five winters, reaching 2.4°C above the recent reference period average (1991–2020). Further drastic reductions in sea ice concentration are expected in the Barents, Okhotsk, and Bering Seas by 2029.
The data show that global warming is already evident in the rise of more damaging heatwaves, extreme precipitation events, intense droughts, glacier melt, and sea level rise. In January 2025, for example, the hottest month in history was recorded, with global average temperatures 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels.
The Paris Agreement and Reality
The Paris Agreement, which marks its 10th anniversary in 2025, sets the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. To contain warming at 1.5°C by 2050, emissions would need to be reduced by 43% by 2030, based on 2019 levels, and reach net-zero by 2050. However, at the current pace, the planet is on track to reduce emissions by only 3% by 2030 — far below the necessary target.
European Commission Executive Vice-President for a Clean, Fair and Competitive Transition, Teresa Ribera, stated on July 2, 2025, that “political cowardice” is undermining Europe’s efforts to confront the effects of the climate crisis.
The Urgency of Action
The WMO report and extreme climate events underscore the need for immediate and deep emissions cuts across all sectors to avoid the worst-case scenarios. The importance of monitoring scientific data and climate forecasts is crucial to support decision-making.
In Belém, Pará, the 2025 Sustainable Congress, held on July 1–2, brought together leaders to discuss the transition to a carbon-neutral economy, with a focus on solutions to the climate crisis. The event aimed to accelerate the development of a carbon-neutral, regenerative, and socially inclusive economy, positioning Brazil as a key global player in the race toward climate neutrality and environmental justice.
