With a global average temperature 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, governments accelerate energy transition and urban adaptation to contain environmental and socioeconomic impacts
Climate change entered a new stage of severity in 2024, when the world surpassed the 1.5 °C mark above the pre-industrial average temperature for the first time. The data was confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in March this year and triggered a series of warnings from the scientific community and multilateral organizations. Brazil, a country with high climate vulnerability and vast environmental reserves, ranks among the most affected — and most pressured — in the mitigation agenda.
The year 2024 also recorded record increases in ocean temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. In Brazil, intense rains and floods in Rio Grande do Sul affected more than 2 million people, marking the greatest climate disaster in the state’s history. “It’s the kind of tragedy that stops being episodic and becomes part of daily life,” said Sandra Amorim, climatologist at the University of São Paulo (USP).
With the global cost of climate disasters surpassing US$ 143 billion, according to estimates from the World Economic Forum, discussions on energy transition and urban resilience solutions gained traction. European countries, the United States, and China increased investments in renewable energy and adaptation technologies, while organizations such as the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reinforce that the window for action is closing.
Emissions, energy, and missed targets
According to the 2024 Emissions Gap Report, produced by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the commitments made by countries so far are insufficient to keep warming below 2 °C. The most optimistic projection, considering full compliance with net-zero goals by 2050, would still result in 2.5 °C of warming by the end of the century.
Global greenhouse gas emissions remained at high levels, particularly CO₂, whose average atmospheric concentration reached 425 ppm (parts per million) in 2024. The main source continues to be the burning of fossil fuels, accounting for about 75% of emissions, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In response, several countries reinforced their commitment to energy transition. China announced new investments in green hydrogen and offshore wind, while the United States launched tax incentives for biomethane. In Brazil, the federal government updated the National Energy Plan to include a greater share of biogas in the energy matrix and to revise reforestation targets.
Brazil’s role and the agro challenge
With about 83% of its electricity already coming from renewable sources, Brazil starts from a relatively advanced position in the climate debate but faces significant challenges in land use. Deforestation in the Amazon dropped 22% in 2024, according to INPE, but still remains above 9,000 km² per year.
Agribusiness, responsible for over 25% of Brazil’s emissions, is also under international pressure. The European Union has conditioned trade agreements on the traceability of meat and soy produced without forest destruction. “The key lies in integrating conservation and productivity, something Brazilian science already knows how to do — but it requires political will,” says Eliana Silva Dias, researcher at Embrapa.
Strategic solutions: biomethane, cities, and circular economy
Among the technological alternatives highlighted by experts is biomethane, a renewable gas derived from organic waste treatment. In Brazil, it is estimated that only 3% of its production potential is currently in use. According to the Brazilian Biogas Association (ABiogás), the country could replace 70% of its diesel consumption with biomethane if industrial-scale investments were made.
Another area of action is cities. UN-Habitat launched a plan to strengthen urban resilience in Latin American metropolitan centers, focusing on drainage, safe housing, and the expansion of green areas. The plan foresees R$ 12 billion in investments by 2030, with resources from the World Bank and cooperation between local governments.
Economists also point to the circular economy as a mechanism for adaptation. A report by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation estimates that circular practices can reduce global industrial emissions by up to 45%, while generating jobs and mitigating inequality — especially in emerging countries.
Top greenhouse gas emitters in the world
| Country | Share of global emissions (2023) | Main sources of emissions |
|---|---|---|
| China | 30.9% | Coal, heavy industry, transportation |
| United States | 13.5% | Transportation, energy, agriculture |
| India | 7.3% | Coal energy, agriculture |
| European Union | 6.9% | Transportation, industry, energy |
| Russia | 4.7% | Oil, natural gas, coal |
| Brazil | 2.8% | Agriculture, deforestation, energy |
Source: Climate Watch 2024 / World Resources Institute
Social impacts and vulnerability
The effects of climate change fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations. In peripheral urban areas, such as the favelas of Rio de Janeiro, the perceived temperature can exceed 60 °C during heatwaves, according to a study by the Observatório das Metrópoles. This occurs due to low tree cover, high density of concrete structures, and limited access to cooling infrastructure.
In rural regions, water scarcity directly affects family farmers, who are responsible for 70% of the food consumed in Brazil. The Getulio Vargas Foundation estimates that, without adaptation measures, Brazil’s agricultural GDP could fall by 15% by 2035.
Experts warn that climate change is also a matter of social justice. “The climate is not neutral. It exacerbates inequalities, weakens rights, and intensifies migratory flows,” says João Meirelles Filho, director of the Peabiru Institute.
What to expect from 2025 onward
The UN Climate Conference (COP30), scheduled to take place in Belém do Pará in 2025, is considered a decisive moment for revising international climate commitments. The expectation is that countries will present revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with more ambitious and deliverable goals before 2030.
Civil society, in turn, is pushing for more transparency and binding actions. Environmental organizations and Indigenous movements are mobilizing to present proposals during the conference. “We don’t just want promises. We want clear accountability mechanisms,” says Indigenous leader Tuíra Kayapó.
With forecasts indicating a continued rise in temperatures, experts agree: the current decade will be decisive in shaping the conditions for survival in the 21st century.
