In 2015, world leaders signed the Paris Agreement with a clear objective: to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly a decade later, the world finds itself at a crossroads. While some policies show progress, the latest data indicates we are far from meeting the targets. So, is the Paris Agreement working or failing?
What Has Changed Since the Paris Agreement Was Signed?
When the treaty was signed, projections showed that global temperatures could rise by up to 3.6°C by the end of the century. Today, with all current policies in place, that projection has dropped to approximately 2°C. If all carbon neutrality pledges are fulfilled by 2050, it may be possible to limit warming to 1.9°C. But there is still a long way to go.
The year 2024 was the hottest ever recorded, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold for the first time. The impact of rising temperatures is already affecting many regions, with severe droughts, intense storms, and direct consequences for agriculture and infrastructure.
Is the Energy Transition Underway?
COP29 brought an unprecedented consensus: the world needs to move away from fossil fuels. But how can this decision be turned into concrete action? COP30, to be held in Belém do Pará, could be the crucial moment to outline a definitive implementation plan.
Governments of developing countries, such as Brazil, face an additional challenge: how to balance economic growth with emissions reduction? Experts highlight that the solution lies in diversifying the energy matrix, expanding renewable sources, and securing stronger international commitments for climate financing.
Challenges and Obstacles
The Paris Agreement has a structural issue: it is based on voluntary targets. This means countries can set their own goals and methods to achieve them, with no penalties for non-compliance. This makes pressure from civil society, businesses, and NGOs essential to drive more ambitious actions.
Moreover, the United States’ withdrawal from the Agreement during the Trump administration was a blow to global climate financing. Although the country rejoined under President Biden, political instability still raises doubts about long-term commitment.
What to Expect from COP30 and the Future of the Paris Agreement?
COP30 could mark the transition from the negotiation phase to a more concrete stage of implementation. The event is expected to drive new policies and mechanisms to ensure climate commitments become reality.
The central question remains: are we acting fast enough? Experts warn that without aggressive emissions cuts and an accelerated transformation of the energy sector, the world may soon surpass a point of no return.
The Paris Agreement has led to undeniable progress, but the pace of change is still insufficient. For the treaty to fulfill its purpose, a greater global effort will be necessary, with stricter policies, massive investment in clean energy, and a genuine commitment from governments and the private sector. COP30 will be a definitive test to gauge the future of the fight against climate change.
